JUNE, 2009
The real issue in our
upper-end markets:
credit
availability
“The real issue for 2009 is the availability of credit,
particularly at the high end of the market, which has held up fairly
well so far but is vulnerable when you combine a weakening economy and
financing that is at a premium,” according to California Assn. of
Realtors® Vice President and
Chief Economist, Leslie Appleton-Young. Local lenders have indicated
there is still financing available for qualified buyers, but it may be
2010 before the jumbo loan market really opens up again.
Faint but growing signs
John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president, recently stated,
“For the past few months
we’ve seen faint but growing signs that would normally suggest many
markets are nearing price stabilization. But we’ll need to see those
vital signs continue to strengthen into the fall. Job losses and
historically high foreclosure levels continue to pose serious threats to
housing stability." He also said that, "In much of the Bay Area there’s
the added problem of ‘jumbo’ loan financing still being relatively
expensive and, for many, hard to get. A solution to that problem will no
doubt be part of the kindling that eventually re-ignites the Bay
Area’s high-end sales.”
Spotlight:
May High End "Pending Sales"
Lafayette and Alamo
Here's a look at two
communities with average closed sales prices that are among the highest in our local
market area. They are good examples of our upper end local markets.
These charts show pending sales, homes that just have just gone into
contract during May 09.
Note the diversity of
these markets. Some homes are selling in less than a week (most
likely well priced, very desirable homes), while others have spent
months on the market before a sale. Additionally, a number have
experienced significant price reductions before securing a buyer.
Lafayette
|
|
MAY 09 |
|
PENDING SALES
$1 M+ |
|
Price Range: $1 Million
plus homes that went into to escrow during May 09 |
Original
List Price |
Current
List Price |
% change |
Days on Market |
|
$1,085,000 |
$1,085,000 |
0 |
7 days |
|
$1,199,000 |
$1,199,000 |
0 |
20 days |
|
$1,235,000 |
$1,235,000 |
0 |
5 days |
|
$1,325,550 |
$1,249,000 |
-6% |
90 days |
|
$1,299,000 |
$1,249,000 |
-4% |
48 days |
|
$1,450,000 |
$1,350,000 |
-7% |
78 days |
|
$1,395,000 |
$1,395,000 |
0 |
53 days |
|
$1,595,000 |
$1,595,000 |
0 |
18 days |
|
$1,888,000 |
$1,695,000 |
-10% |
127 days |
|
$2,049,000 |
$1,795,000 |
-12% |
84 days |
Conclusions: Lafayette has
done better than many communities in this market. The numbers
above do show that sellers must price to the market or be prepared to
sit. Desirable properties, priced properly, can still sell quickly.
Looking Back in History
Million Dollar Sales
|
Lafayette |
|
year |
# of sales |
average sales
price |
**average
days on market |
|
2006 |
165 |
$1,319,936 |
20 |
|
2007 |
169 |
$1,294,061 |
33 |
|
2008 |
120 |
$1,257.261 |
46 |
|
*2009 |
17 |
$1,046,460 |
62 |
|
**the method of calculating DOM
has changed in recent years so this number is somewhat
inaccurate, *y-t-d 2009 |
Conclusions: The numbers show the
decrease in the numbers of closed sales since the price peak in
Lafayette in 2006. Prices held pretty well in Lafayette in
comparison with other local communities until this fall. Since then
there has been continued softening. The upper end credit crunch that began in Sept. 07,
caused fewer buyers to be able to obtain jumbo financing. Then, with the
financial melt down last fall and recession, fewer buyers
have been able to enter the market. As the recession eventually comes to an end,
the job market improves and jumbo financing becomes more affordable and
available, this segment of the market will then rebound.
|
Alamo |
| MAY 09 |
| PENDING SALES
$1 M+ |
| Price Range: $1 Million
plus homes that went into to escrow during May 09 |
| |
Original
List Price |
Current
List Price |
% change |
Days on Market |
|
$1,120,000 |
$1,089,000 |
-3% |
69 days |
|
$1,295,000 |
$1,095,000 |
-15% |
102 days |
|
$1,210,000 |
$1,135,000 |
-6% |
46 days |
|
$1,300,000 |
$1,139,000 |
-1% |
181 days* |
|
$1,125,000 |
$1,145,000 |
-2% |
10 days |
|
$1,179,000 |
$1,159,000 |
-2% |
119 days* |
|
$1,799,950 |
$1,299,000 |
-28% |
376 days |
|
$1,390,000 |
$1,299,000 |
-7% |
49 days |
|
$1,300,000 |
$1,300,000 |
-0 |
63 days |
|
$1,549,000 |
$1,445,000 |
-7% |
41 days |
|
$1,698,888 |
$1,475,000 |
-13% |
166 days |
|
$1,575,000 |
$1,575,000 |
-0 |
43 days |
|
$1,650,000 |
$1,650,000 |
-0 |
51 days |
|
$2,075,990 |
$1,825,990 |
-12% |
164 days |
|
$1,895,000 |
$1,895,000 |
-0 |
6 days |
|
$2,160,000 |
$1,950,000 |
-10% |
80 days |
|
$2,345,000 |
$2,345,000 |
-0 |
80 days** |
| $2,885,000 |
$2,499,000 |
-13% |
310 days |
| $3,595,000 |
$2,695,000 |
-25% |
344 days |
| $4,395,000 |
$3,500,000 |
-20% |
168 days |
| $2,350,000 |
$1,038,000 |
-56% |
324 days |
*
REO (foreclosure)
** Short Sale
Conclusions: Alamo presents a
somewhat different market than Lafayette. There continues to be more new
construction in Alamo. Anxious builders have been dealing in order to move
their inventory. There are also some foreclosures in the mix. This
market, as in Lafayette, shows significant diversity. Some outstanding
homes are selling quickly and others take much longer. Pricing is such a
crucial factor. Some sellers seem still to be hoping for 2006 prices in
2009. Lastly, there are definitely bargains out there for astute, qualified, patient
buyers.
Looking
Back in History
Million Dollar Sales
|
Alamo |
|
year |
# of sales |
average sales
price |
**average
days on market |
|
2006 |
151 |
$1,710,182 |
23 |
|
2007 |
150 |
$1,687,335 |
37 |
|
2008 |
105 |
$1,551,877 |
74 |
|
*2009 |
29 |
$1,387,411 |
117 |
|
**the method of calculating DOM
has changed in recent years so
this number is somewhat
inaccurate, *y-t-d 2009 |
Conclusions: The
numbers clearly show the significant decrease in the numbers of closed
sales since the 2006 price peak in Alamo. The credit crunch that
began in Sept. 07, caused fewer buyers to be able to obtain jumbo
financing. Then, as in Lafayette, because of the financial melt down last fall and the current
recession, fewer buyers have been able to enter the market. As the
recession eventually comes to an end, the job market improves and jumbo financing
becomes more affordable and available, this segment of the market will
then rebound.
|
______
Closed Sales Reported to CCAR MLS
Selected Communities
Single Family Detached
Homes
|
|
Active
Listings
1st of June |
Closed Sales
Year-to-Date
1st of June
|
AVERAGE
Closed Sales Prices
y-t-d 1st of June |
|
Area
|
6/08 |
6/09 |
% |
6/08 |
6/09 |
% |
Dec.
2008 |
ytd 2009 |
% |
DOM
|
|
Alamo |
117 |
133 |
+14% |
44 |
33 |
-25% |
$1,547,192 |
$1,387,516 |
-10% |
121 |
|
Blackhawk |
78 |
87 |
+12% |
19 |
14 |
-26% |
$1,371,575 |
$1,145,057 |
-17% |
103 |
|
Clayton |
51 |
45 |
-12% |
39 |
28 |
-28% |
$658,474 |
$606,487 |
-8% |
72 |
|
Concord |
472 |
170 |
-64% |
295 |
424 |
+44% |
$380,181 |
$168,481 |
-56% |
56 |
|
Danville |
213 |
200 |
-6% |
124 |
107 |
-14% |
$1,029,594 |
$900,521 |
-13% |
78 |
|
Dublin |
123 |
42 |
-65% |
81 |
117 |
+44% |
$668,233 |
$611,988 |
-8% |
62 |
|
Lafayette |
119 |
121 |
+2% |
84 |
48 |
-43% |
$1,257,261 |
$1,055,657 |
-16% |
64 |
|
Livermore |
381 |
205 |
-46% |
247 |
287 |
+16% |
$549,622 |
$445,984 |
-19% |
53 |
|
Martinez |
140 |
109 |
-22% |
88 |
125 |
+42% |
$431,739 |
$367,184 |
-15% |
56 |
|
Moraga |
22 |
38 |
+73% |
32 |
16 |
-50% |
$1,100,763 |
$1,048,250 |
-5% |
37 |
|
Orinda |
74 |
94 |
+24% |
52 |
48 |
-8% |
$1,222,571 |
$981,647 |
-20% |
84 |
|
P. Hill |
99 |
62 |
-37% |
74 |
80 |
+8% |
$545,507 |
$462,432 |
-15% |
52 |
|
Pleasanton |
240 |
222 |
-8% |
159 |
135 |
-15% |
$1,011,740 |
$925,614 |
-9% |
77 |
|
S. Ramon |
243 |
168 |
-31% |
201 |
184 |
-8% |
$819,140 |
$711,057 |
-13% |
52 |
|
W. Creek |
196 |
145 |
-26% |
130 |
129 |
-1% |
$842,513 |
$739,311 |
-12% |
60 |
Conclusions: Inventory is
way down in many of the lower price range communities. This may
eventually lead to more demand than supply and prices will begin
to increase.
The average closed sales prices continue to decline. It's
important to note that this decline can be somewhat misleading.
The reason is that the lower end of the market comprises so many
more sales than the upper end and therefore skews the averages
and doesn't reflect a balance of sales between both of those
markets. The upper end has definitely moved down but the
averages don't tell the whole story. When the upper end of the
market returns in full force, average sales prices may increase
significantly.
The numbers of closed sales are off significantly compared to
last year at this time in many of the higher priced communities.
Sales continue to be hot in the lower end price categories
because prices have dropped so much. Bargain hunters, investors,
and first time buyers have been very active.
|
|
